Projects · Regional Conflict
Yemen Houthi Operations
Operation Rough Rider (Mar-May 2025): intensive US campaign against Houthi military. Oman-brokered ceasefire May 2026 halts US strikes; Houthis vow to continue ops vs. Israel absent Gaza ceasefire reciprocity.
Key Data
Houthi FTO Designation
March 4, 2025
More stringent than SDGT
Operation Rough Rider
Mar 15–May 6, 2025
Intensive air campaign
US Ordnance Expended
$1B+ cost
800+ strike sites
Casualty Estimates
57+ dead
Militants & civilians mixed
Ceasefire (Oman-brokered)
May 2025
Houthis halt attacks on US vessels
Houthi Attacks Resume
July 2025+
Non-US ships & Israel targets
Timeline
March 4, 2025
Houthis re-designated as FTO. Trump administration lists Houthis as Foreign Terrorist Organization (more stringent than SDGT). March 15: Operation Rough Rider launched — intensive, sustained air campaign targeting Houthi military, leadership, missile/drone production.
Mar-May 2025
Operation Rough Rider intensifies. US strikes degrade Houthi capabilities but fail to end maritime attacks or restore Red Sea freedom of navigation. Houthis resist, attack US Navy ships, shoot down US unmanned aircraft. Expenditure ~$1 billion; 800+ sites struck. Civilian casualties fuel Houthi propaganda; group maintains resilience.
May 6, 2025
Oman-brokered ceasefire takes effect. Houthis agree to cease targeting US vessels; US halts strikes. Trump praises Houthis' "great capacity to withstand punishment." Ceasefire excludes Israel — Houthis continue missile/drone strikes on Israeli targets.
July 2025
Houthis resume attacks on non-US shipping. Continue strikes against Israel in support of Palestinian cause during Gaza war. Attack resumption follows US-Houthi truce window.
October 2025
Houthis suspend Israel attacks (temporary). Upon Israel-Hamas ceasefire taking effect Oct 10, Houthis pause anti-Israel operations. Pledge to resume if Gaza war restarts.
June 2026
US policy adrift; no comprehensive Yemen strategy. Washington Institute report notes Trump administration pivoted from Yemen after May ceasefire; little diplomatic follow-through. Air operations insufficient to eliminate Houthis; no political solution pursued. Houthis entrenched; Red Sea shipping remains vulnerable.
Assessment
Houthis proved resilient despite US bombing campaign. Airpower-only strategy ineffective in degrading group's political control or maritime capabilities. Oman mediation led to tactical pause, not strategic resolution. Houthis leverage ceasefire to consolidate gains while maintaining option to resume attacks if circumstances shift. Iran likely benefiting from Houthi resilience and regional messaging of "resistance."
Sources
• Congress.gov, "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, & US Policy," 2026
• Atlantic Council, "Can Trump 'completely annihilate' the Houthis?" Jul 15, 2025
• The Hill, "Houthis held, Trump folded," May 26, 2025
• Washington Institute, "Toward a More Comprehensive US Policy on Yemen," Sep 2025
• The Conversation, "Trump risks falling into airpower trap," Apr 2, 2026
• Atlantic Council, "Can Trump 'completely annihilate' the Houthis?" Jul 15, 2025
• The Hill, "Houthis held, Trump folded," May 26, 2025
• Washington Institute, "Toward a More Comprehensive US Policy on Yemen," Sep 2025
• The Conversation, "Trump risks falling into airpower trap," Apr 2, 2026